Donald Trump Could Break 36-Year Record in Florida, Final Poll Shows

One of the last polls in Florida before Election Day puts a presidential candidate ahead of their rival by nine points—a potential winning margin not seen since 1988.
The Florida Atlantic University survey showed that if the election were to be held today, former President Donald Trump would receive 53 percent of the state’s vote, against 44 percent for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump’s share had jumped from 50 percent in August, while Harris’ had fallen from 47 percent. Nationally, the FAU had Harris leading Trump 49 to 47 percent, showing yet again the tight nature of the 2024 election with less than a week to go.
“If Harris were to win, no one should be surprised,” Robert Martin, senior data analyst for Mainstreet Research, said on Tuesday. “If Trump were to win, no one should be surprised.”
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Trump’s apparent lead among Floridians would mean his highest support in the state since he entered politics in 2016. That year, he won with 49 percent of the vote; in 2020, it was 51.2 percent.
The last time the gap between the Republican and Democratic nominees was larger than six points was in 1988, when George H.W. Bush received 60.9 percent of the vote, compared to 38.5 percent for Michael Dukakis.
Across the past few months, polling has consistently shown the Republican candidate leading his Democratic rival in the Sunshine State, which has mainly voted red in six of the last nine general elections.
“Florida is Trump country. Thousands of Republicans are fleeing blue states, frustrated by the failures of Harris and the Democrats,” Rachel Reisner, Team Trump Director of Regional Communications, said in a statement sent to Newsweek.
“In November, Florida voters will send a clear and resounding message: President Donald J. Trump is the only leader with a proven track record of making our nation prosperous and affordable. The movement to Make America Great Again is alive and growing, and it starts here in Florida.”
Newsweek also reached out to the Harris campaign for comment via email Tuesday afternoon.
Another recent poll showed that Floridians had a negative view of both candidates, reflecting a distrust of national politics.
Florida holds 30 Electoral College votes this year, up from 29 four years ago, but it has not been a focus for either campaign. Instead, they have focused on seven battleground states, which could go either way on November 5, while Florida is nearly sure to remain Republican.
This latest FAU polling asked voters about two down-ballot measures: legalizing marijuana for those over 21 and an amendment that would guarantee abortions up until fetus viability.
On the first issue, 60 percent said they would be voting in support of legalizing weed, and 34 percent against it.
When it came to abortion—an issue Trump has said he wanted to hand back to states through the overturning of Roe v. Wade—58 percent wanted the measure, against 32 percent against. A six-week ban is currently in place.